Israel Votes TODAY—But Will We Have a Government?

Update: I wrote this blog this morning, and it is now 4 pm here in Israel. According to reports, the turnout so far is the largest in Israel’s history, revealing how passionate people are about this historic election.

By the time you wake up, Israelis will have already gone to the kalpi to cast their votes. In fact, the word kalpi (קלפי), or kalpiot (קלפיות) in the plural, can be heard on virtually every Israeli newscast during an election. It simply means “ballot box” or “polling station.” But what most people don't realize is that this everyday Hebrew word has a fascinating history going back nearly 2,000 years.

The word kalpi actually comes from the Greek word kalpē, which referred to an urn or container. It was adopted into Mishnaic Hebrew in the early centuries of the Common Era, where it referred to a container used for drawing lots.

We find it in Mishnah Yoma 4:1, which describes the high priest drawing two lots on Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement. One lot was designated “for the LORD,” and the other “for Azazel,” as commanded in Leviticus 16:8–10. The Mishnah tells us that the high priest reached into a kalpi to draw the two lots.

Think about that! The very same word used nearly 2,000 years ago to describe the container from which the high priest drew lots on the holiest day of the Jewish calendar is the word Israelis use today when they go to vote.

Of course, the high priest wasn't participating in an election! But I find it fascinating how a Greek word, preserved in ancient Jewish religious literature, survived for nearly two millennia and eventually became part of the everyday vocabulary of the modern Jewish state.

But I digress...Let’s get into the elections

Today is what many commentators are calling the most important election in Israel's history. After what we have experienced over the past three years, it is not hard to see why. It began on October 7, 2023, with the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust. Then came years of national trauma as our hostages languished in Gaza, the war against Hamas and other terrorist organizations, and, of course, the war with Iran. We have experienced three of the most difficult years in Israel's modern history, and today Israelis are being asked to decide who should lead us into the next chapter.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists that he is the only person capable of leading Israel through this dangerous period. His primary challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, a former IDF chief of staff, argues that Netanyahu bears ultimate responsibility for the failures that led to October 7. There have been numerous reports of warnings that were not adequately acted upon from the UAE, Egypt, and even Hamas leader Sinwar, and one of the central questions in this election is whether Netanyahu should be held politically accountable for the worst security disaster in Israel's history.

But if you think today's election is as simple as choosing between two leaders, grab a cup of coffee and keep reading. It's anything but simple! In fact, no matter who wins today, we won't know who our next prime minister will be for weeks. It's entirely possible that neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot can form a government.

Welcome to Israeli democracy!

You see, Israel does not directly elect its prime minister. We vote for political parties, which receive seats in our 120-member parliament, called the Knesset. With more than a dozen serious political lists competing, no single party is expected to come anywhere close to winning an outright majority. A party must receive at least 3.25 percent of the national vote to enter the Knesset, which translates to four seats. If it falls below that threshold, it gets nothing. Even Israel's largest parties generally win only a fraction of the 120 seats.

This is one reason that Netanyahu has been encouraging Ofer Winter’s small right-wing party to bow out of the elections—even asking his rabbi to pressure him. The fear is that if he falls below the 3.25% threshold, those votes will go nowhere. But they will come from Netanyahu’s base.

According to the final polls, Eisenkot's Yashar party is projected to finish ahead of Netanyahu's Likud. But that does not necessarily make Eisenkot our next prime minister. In Israel, winning the most seats is not enough. The magic number is 61, a majority of the Knesset. Following the election, President Isaac Herzog will consult with the political parties and decide which member of the Knesset has the best chance of assembling a governing coalition. That person gets 28 days to negotiate with other parties, with a possible 14-day extension. And believe me, there will be plenty of negotiating!

Eisenkot's natural allies include former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, who are running together under the name Together (Beyachad), former defense minister Avigdor Lieberman, who represents a secular, right-wing constituency, and Yair Golan, leader of the center-left Democrats. You might think that would be enough, but according to the final polls, even these parties together are expected to fall short of 61 seats.

That leaves Eisenkot with some difficult choices. One possibility is Ra'am, an Arab Islamist party led by Mansour Abbas. In 2021, Ra'am made history by joining the Bennett-Lapid coalition, becoming the first independent Arab party to formally join an Israeli governing coalition. It was an extraordinary development in Israeli politics. Abbas has argued that Arab citizens should participate in government to improve their communities rather than remain permanently in the opposition. Other Arab parties take a more confrontational approach to Zionism and Israeli government policy, making a partnership considerably more difficult. Even with Ra'am's support, however, Eisenkot might still struggle to reach 61 seats.

Another option is to invite Netanyahu's Likud into a national unity government. But that raises an entirely different set of problems. Eisenkot has pledged not to serve under Netanyahu, while Netanyahu, at 76, appears determined to remain prime minister rather than accept a lesser position. Could either man reverse his position for the sake of forming a government? Israeli politics is famous for unexpected compromises, but for now, the obstacles seem enormous. A few years ago, Benny Gantz went against his pledge and formed a government with Netanyahu, anchoring his base. They were supposed to take turns as Prime Minister, but when Netanyahu’s 18 months were up, he let the government fold rather than let Gantz replace him.

And then there is Bibi.

If you have followed Israeli politics for any length of time, you know that Benjamin Netanyahu is like a cat with nine lives. Just when political commentators declare his career finished, he finds a way to survive. His supporters are extraordinarily loyal, and he has once again received a significant boost from President Donald Trump, who publicly endorsed him as a great warrior and argued that the two leaders still have unfinished business with Iran.

But the Iran issue has also become controversial. Netanyahu's critics have accused him of wanting another confrontation with Iran either to boost his political standing or potentially delay the election. Netanyahu has denied seeking such a confrontation for political purposes, but Israeli media (and US media) reported that IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir saw no immediate operational justification for launching a preemptive strike against Iran before the election and had a massive confrontation with the Prime Minister over it. We should be careful here: reports of disagreements between military and political leaders are one thing; proving that a prime minister intended to manipulate an election through war is another. Nevertheless, the controversy illustrates just how tense this election has become. And there is another report that Bibi lobbied Trump to hit Iran earlier this month together. Trump allegedly shot that idea down.

Netanyahu's challenge mirrors Eisenkot's. Even if Likud performs better than expected, his traditional partners—the ultra-Orthodox religious parties and the nationalist far-right parties—are not projected to give him the 61 seats he needs. He would have to persuade additional parties to join him, perhaps Bennett's alliance or even Eisenkot himself. But these leaders have publicly rejected serving under Netanyahu. Of course, promises made during an election campaign sometimes have a remarkably short shelf life once coalition negotiations begin!

So what happens if neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot can form a government? The president can offer another member of the Knesset a chance, and additional procedures exist to find a majority. But if all these efforts fail, Israel will face yet another election, potentially sending us back to the polls within a few months. For a country that has already experienced years of political instability, that is hardly an encouraging possibility.

So where does that leave us?

Like most Israelis, I have my opinions. I've lived here for more than two decades, raised my family here, and watched this country go through wars, political crises, and moments of extraordinary courage. But at the end of the day, my personal political preference is not what matters most. What matters is the future of Israel and the well-being of the people who call this country home.

And that is why I am asking you to pray.

• Pray that Israelis will have wisdom as they cast their ballots.

• Pray that our leaders will put the good of the nation above personal ambition and political survival.

• Pray that whoever is entrusted with forming the next government will have the wisdom and humility to bring people together.

• Pray that our enemies will not use this sensitive moment to launch new attacks against us.

• And above all, pray for God's purposes to be accomplished in Israel. We desperately need wisdom, stability, healing, and peace after three extraordinarily painful years.

Am Yisrael Chai!