Friends, the last thing I want to do is to cause panic. In fact, this post is to do the opposite—to build your faith. But before you can prepare to fight your enemy, you have size him up. Or in Yeshua’s words—count the cost.

I am not a doctor, a scientist or a anything close, but I am pretty good at arithmetic, and outside of a miracle (as in one like the parting of the Red Sea) or a miracle drug, the worst is yet to come. Let’s just do the math. In one month in Israel, we went from two cases to over 2,000. That means, all things being equal, you can add three more zeros and we could be at 2,000,000 by this time next month!

That is why this is different than the common flu. It multiplied by 1,000 in less than 30 days. What is 1,000 times 2,000? 2,000,000! Now, there many different factors that make this different from last month:

  1. Everyone is far more careful today than a month ago.

  2. Doctors are learning more. Innovators and innovating.

  3. The weather is warming in the western hemisphere.

  4. China has reported a dramatic drop in cases in the last month—but we also know that the Chinese government officials are notorious liars and without verification, we can’t trust their numbers.

  5. The virus could somehow just die out.

  6. Or it could turn out that that a vastly higher number of people already have or had the virus and were asymptomatic, bringing the death rate down dramatically. That would slow the rate of growth dramatically—since those who’ve already had it, won’t catch it again—and cause this to be over soon.

So, in the natural, let’s say it will be half as impacting this month. That means, 1,000,000 out of 9,000,000 people in Israel will get this virus by the end of April. That is more than everyone who has had it in the entire world.

[Note: The vast majority, 99% or higher that get this virus will recover (based on US and Israeli stats). The virus is far from a death sentence, so do not panic! But it is not to be taken lightly either.]